Technology in the Home – Australia is Lagging with The Very Good Idea of Supporting Patient’s Health in their Home.

The following appeared a few days ago. Beating Resistance to Home Monitoring March 24, 2008 Health care organizations and information technology vendors still face formidable challenges in convincing private insurers to adopt home health monitoring technologies. Yet, vendors can overcome insurer resistance by providing independently verifiable trial results and further education regarding the benefits of home health monitoring technologies, according to a new study by Parks Associates, a Dallas-based research firm. The study, "Private Insurance and Digital Health Solutions," is based on interviews in January with 20 senior executives from private health insurers. "With U.S. market potential of $2.5 billion in device and service revenues by 2012, the home health monitoring industry has every incentive to convince private insurers, along with other potential payers, of the technology's value and feasibility," said Harry Wang, senior analyst at Parks Associates. More here: ...

This is the initial part of the post - read more by clicking on the title of the article. David.

NEHTA Fantasises About the Contribution of Outgoing CEO.

This just appeared on the NEHTA RSS feed. Tributes to outgoing CEO Dr Ian Reinecke Industry leaders from around the world have paid tribute to the outstanding contribution of Dr Reinecke to the development of e-health in Australia during his nearly four year tenure leading Australia's National E-Health Transition Authority. Richard Granger, former Chief Executive, NHS Connecting for Health has said: "Ian has achieved much in the past three and a half years. There is now a clear vision for a national and state system of e-health infrastructure in Australia, an appropriately skilled central team in place and a timetable for implementation. His job has been a difficult one and it would only be by walking in his shoes that others might fully understand how it has required Ian's intellect and leadership to deliver such progress." David J. Brailer, MD, PhD, Chairman, Health Evolution Partners, former US National Coordinator for Health Information Technology has said: "Ian Reinecke...

This is the initial part of the post - read more by clicking on the title of the article. David.

Useful and Interesting Health IT Links from the Last Week – 30/03/2008

Again, in the last week, I have come across a few reports and news items which are worth passing on. These include first: HIT Terms Project Calls For Final Comments On Proposed Definitions To enable widespread participation in this project for U.S. Department of Health and Human Services' Office of the National Coordinator, the Alliance is holding a second public comment period from March 24th to April 9th on the work completed so far in defining the five terms: electronic medical record (EMR), electronic health record (EHR), personal health record (PHR), health information exchange (HIE) and regional health information organization (RHIO). The deadline for finalizing the definitions is approaching and now is the time to be heard and to provide input on the definitions. The final definitions will provide an important reference point for policy evaluation and standards development activities and they will help explain health IT concepts in language that consumers can readily...

This is the initial part of the post - read more by clicking on the title of the article. David.

What Does the Acting NEHTA CEO Need to do Pronto?

With the resignation of NEHTA's old CEO major change is needed promptly. If I were to be asked I would suggest the following. 1. Publish all the consulting advice that NEHTA has received so all stakeholders can form a view as to just what is worthwhile in what NEHTA has commissioned, and understand what NEHTA has been advised to assess just how reasonable past actions have been. 2. Release, for stakeholder comment, all completed or near completed project working papers for stakeholder comment to ensure alignment of NEHTA's activities with present needs. 3. Appoint the new independent Board Members ASAP. 4. Give all those who work for NEHTA a 2 day detailed course in health sector values and culture so they understand just who it is they are actually working for to develop systems for. 5. Ensure everyone at NEHTA recognises that there is more to the health system than is represented by the present Board and that these clients have been virtually totally ignored for the last 4...

This is the initial part of the post - read more by clicking on the title of the article. David.

Dr Ian Reinecke Resigns – Oh Happy Day!

In a really fabulous announcement the greatest block to e-Health progress in Australia, in my view, has finally announced his resignation from NEHTA. Founding CEO to leave NEHTA 31 March, 2008, Dr Ian Reinecke, the founding Chief Executive Officer of the National E-Health Transition Authority, has announced his decision to leave NEHTA. Chair of the NEHTA Board Dr Tony Sherbon thanked Dr Reinecke for his leadership of NEHTA since October 2004. Dr Reinecke was responsible for establishing NEHTA as a company in 2005 and the subsequent development of a work program that now involves more than 150 staff working on a range of complex e-health projects. "Following funding support from COAG, Dr Reinecke has negotiated the contract to establish unique health identifiers for all Australians as well as their health care providers," Dr Sherbon said. "This project is now well underway and Dr Reinecke's efforts will prove to be of great benefit in the near future to millions of Australians. ...

This is the initial part of the post - read more by clicking on the title of the article. David.

ScriptX – Just What is it and Where is This Heading?

The following press release appeared a day or so ago, along with an ASX announcement under the symbol COO. Corum Health joint venture pioneers e-prescriptions 27/03/2008 Corum Health Services is pleased to announce the joint venture to develop the first widely available system for electronically transmitting prescriptions between doctors and pharmacies. Endorsed by the Pharmacy Guild of Australia, ScriptX has the potential to dramatically improve patient care by improving the safety and efficiency of prescribing, while protecting patient privacy and choice of pharmacy. Our joint venture partners, Health Communication Network Limited and Fred Health, have worked with us to: • Enable doctors to securely electronically send prescriptions to an encrypted hub for retrieval at a patient's pharmacy of choice • Provide a universal standard, so that all doctors, medical facilities and pharmacies throughout Australia can access ScriptX, no matter what software they use • Preserve...

This is the initial part of the post - read more by clicking on the title of the article. David.

Computerised Physician Order Entry (CPOE) – A Vital In Hospital Technology

The following article appeared in Modern Medicine a few days ago CPOE adoption, priority varies among surveys By: Joseph Conn Story posted: March 10, 2008 - 5:59 am EDT The quest for computerized physician order entry has been one of fits and starts—mostly fits—since 1972, when aerospace contractor Lockheed Corp. and El Camino Hospital in Mountain View, Calif., teamed up to develop what is generally regarded as the first CPOE system in America. Twenty-eight years later, the Business Roundtable launched the Leapfrog Group to address the patient-safety and quality-improvement challenges outlined in the seminal 1999 Institute of Medicine report, To Err is Human. Leapfrog hoped to harness the buying power of its corporate members to pressure the healthcare industry to make improvements. It settled on pushing hospitals to install CPOE systems as one of its three initial "leaps," along with promoting the hiring of hospital-based intensivists and evidence-based referrals for certain...

This is the initial part of the post - read more by clicking on the title of the article. David.

It Looks Like NEHTA has Missed Out on Shared EHR Funding!

In December last year we were told: http://aushealthit.blogspot.com/2007_12_01_archive.html NEHTA HERALDS E-HEALTH MILESTONES and announces its action plan for adoption success 17 December 2007 Australia's e-health reform agenda took a forward step today with the release of an action plan by the National E-Health Transition Authority (NEHTA). The Board of NEHTA also endorsed a business case for developing a national platform for personal electronic health records to be put to the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) early next year. The NEHTA action plan outlines key areas for ensuring the successful adoption of measures to improve the electronic communication of critical health information. "After working to build foundations for electronic health since the organisation was established in 2005, we are now in a position to begin to deliver some concrete applications of our work," NEHTA's Chair Dr Tony Sherbon said. "The new Federal Government has signaled health reform...

This is the initial part of the post - read more by clicking on the title of the article. David.

NEHTA’s Future – The Article from Pulse+IT March 2008 – With an Update

A week or so ago Pulse+IT published an article I contributed. See the following URL: http://www.pulsemagazine.com.au/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=311&Itemid=1 Where to next for NEHTA? Very late December, 2007 the National E-Health Transition Authority (NEHTA) released a report developed by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) reviewing NEHTA's performance since establishment. A response to the BCG report, prepared by NEHTA, was released on the same day. The 'BCG NEHTA Review' had been finalised in October 2007 and the NEHTA response on December 6, 2007. If it was not for reasons of media management in immediate proximity to the Christmas holiday period, the reason for the delayed release of the two documents remains unclear. That there was a long congratulatory piece (see reference) published in association with the document's release would lend some support to that view. Delayed release aside, it is the purpose of this article to critically review each...

This is the initial part of the post - read more by clicking on the title of the article. David.

The AHIC Future Directions Paper is Hopelessly Misconceived and Already Obsolete.

In the last week a paper developed by the luminaries of the Australian Health Information Council has been released , having been finalised in sometime in August, 2007. The paper purports to suggest the Future Directions in E-Health for Australia for the next five years. The release of the paper was publicised on the blog a few days ago. See: http://aushealthit.blogspot.com/2008/03/ahic-future-directions-paper-now-in.html The recommendations made are as follows: "1.1 Recommendations In considering its advice, AHIC recommends the following: 1. That a comprehensive national eHealth strategy be developed in consultation with the Jurisdictions, industry, the community and health services, and that this strategy encompasses the advice of AHIC contained in this document. 2. That AHMAC recognise that eHealth is the cost of doing business in the 21st century healthcare and that this will require continuity of investment, accepting that products and hardware will need to be...

This is the initial part of the post - read more by clicking on the title of the article. David.

Useful and Interesting Health IT Links from the Last Week – 23/03/2008

Again, in the last week, I have come across a few reports and news items which are worth passing on. These include first: AHRQ Awards $5 Million To Help Integrate Clinical Decision Support Technologies into Health Care Delivery Press Release Date: March 13, 2008 The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services' (HHS') Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) has awarded $5 million for two new health information technology contracts that will focus on the development, adoption, implementation and evaluation of best practices using clinical decision support. Clinical decision support helps health professionals make informed patient care decisions. The Brigham and Women's Hospital in Boston and Yale University School of Medicine in New Haven, CT, have been selected to incorporate clinical decision support into widely used health IT products, demonstrate cross-platform utility, and establish lessons learned for clinical decision support implementation across the health IT...

This is the initial part of the post - read more by clicking on the title of the article. David.

Rapid Learning – Using the EHR to Make a Real Difference!

A really good piece of news and a demonstration of where the EHR can get us! Kaiser culls own data for insight By Helen Altonn haltonn@starbulletin.com Kaiser Permanente Hawaii is taking an unusual approach to improve care, reduce early deaths and lower costs for patients with cardiovascular disease. Instead of recruiting volunteers for an expensive study, it is using its electronic medical record system, KP HealthConnect, to examine heart disease prevention and management in about 150,000 adult isle patients. "What we're interested in learning is how electronic medical records improve care," Dr. Thomas M. Vogt, senior investigator at Kaiser Permanente's Center for Health Research in Honolulu and principal investigator for the two-year study, said in an interview. The center received $600,000 from the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality to study prevention and management of heart disease and stroke and find ways to improve cardiovascular care nationwide. Kaiser...

This is the initial part of the post - read more by clicking on the title of the article. David.

PubGet (3rd Party PubMed/MEDLINE Tool)

The idea behind Pubget is that it speeds up the process of grabbing the full-text PDFs from PubMed search results. The video below illustrates the idea:

Above: Embedded video. If you are reading this in an aggregator, you may need to visit the site to view the video.

If you’re at one of the following institutions, you can try a full-featured Pubget that links to full-text PDFs available to these institutions:

• MIT
• Harvard University
• Harvard Medical School
• University of Queensland
• Massachusetts General Hospital

From Pubget’s public site, you can get a feel for how it works, but it’ll only pull up open access PDFs.

To keep up on new developments, you can subscribe to the feed of the Pubget blog.

Interested in getting this service for your library’s users? Get in touch and let them know you’re interested.

WikiEcho (cardiography wiki)

Added to the list of medical wikis:

WikiEcho

Self-description: “Wikiecho is a project to create a free, up-to-date and reliable online resource covering the rapidly advancing field of echocardiography.”
Intended Audience/Users: “This website is intended to be used by medical students, residents, physicians, cardiology fellows, cardiologists and cardiac sonographers.”
Contributors: Anyone who registers.
Editors/Administrators: Not listed.
Editorial Policies: Minimal, available here.

Web Geekery in Recent Literature: 4/3/08

J Am Coll Radiol. 2008 Apr;5(4):593-7.
Quality of CT colonography-related web sites for consumers.
Sheran J, Dachman AH.

Department of Radiology, University of Chicago Hospitals, Chicago, Illinois 60637, USA.

PURPOSE: Patients often request to undergo computed tomographic colonography (CTC) from radiologists or referring physicians on the basis of their personal examination of information on the Web. Therefore, the authors examined the information on CTC and virtual colonoscopy available for consumers on the Web to assess its quality. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The term virtual colonoscopy was entered into 3 popular search engines: Google, Yahoo, and MSN. In each case, evaluation was limited to the first 50 Web sites, or hits, which were recorded and analyzed for content, comprehensiveness, and accuracy. RESULTS: Sixty-seven Web sites were deemed appropriate for further analysis. More than half of the sites reported currency dates more than 2 years old. Only a third of the sites included information about the risk factors for colorectal cancer. About a third of the sites did not explain the indications for the use of CTC, and the remaining sites lacked consistent descriptions of the indications. Few Web sites offered or described the option of performing same-day optical colonoscopy for patients with abnormal results on CTC. CONCLUSION: The data suggest that patients are often armed with very incomplete information from Web sites on CTC. Web sites were often found to be outdated, to contain conflicting information, and were lacking descriptions of patient risk factors for colorectal cancer. Several suggestions are made to improve the dissemination of comprehensive, current, and accurate information.

PMID: 18359448

_____________________________

Hum Reprod. 2008 Mar 27 [Epub ahead of print]
Infertility information on the World Wide Web: a cross-sectional survey of quality of infertility information on the internet in the UK.
Marriott JV, Stec P, El-Toukhy T, Khalaf Y, Braude P, Coomarasamy A.

Assisted Conception Unit, Guy’s and St. Thomas’ Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Thomas Guy House, Guys Hospital, 4th Floor, London SE1 9RT, UK.

BACKGROUND The internet is a frequently used source of information for infertile couples. Previous studies suggested that the quality of health information on the internet is poor. The aim of this study was to assess the quality of websites providing information on infertility and its management in the UK. Differences between website types and affiliations were assessed. METHODS A Google search for the keyword ‘infertility’ was performed and 107 relevant websites were identified and categorized by type. Websites were assessed for credibility, accuracy and ease of navigation using predefined criteria. RESULTS The total scores for all types of websites were low, particularly in the accuracy category. Websites affiliated to the UK National Health Service (NHS) scored higher than those affiliated to private fertility clinics and other clinics providing non-conventional fertility treatment. Specifically, NHS websites were more likely to report success rates (92.9% versus 60% and 0%, P PMID: 18372253

_____________________________

Am J Pharm Educ. 2008 Feb 15;72(1):10.
Online social networking issues within academia and pharmacy education. [Free full text]
Cain J.

University of Kentucky College of Pharmacy, USA.

Online social networking sites such as Facebook and MySpace are extremely popular as indicated by the numbers of members and visits to the sites. They allow students to connect with users with similar interests, build and maintain relationships with friends, and feel more connected with their campus. The foremost criticisms of online social networking are that students may open themselves to public scrutiny of their online personas and risk physical safety by revealing excessive personal information. This review outlines issues of online social networking in higher education by drawing upon articles in both the lay press and academic publications. New points for pharmacy educators to consider include the possible emergence of an “e-professionalism” concept; legal and ethical implications of using online postings in admission, discipline, and student safety decisions; how online personas may blend into professional life; and the responsibility for educating students about the risks of online social networking.

PMID: 18322572

_____________________________

Catheter Cardiovasc Interv. 2008 Feb 15;71(3):441-4.
SCAI launches seconds-count.org: An interventional cardiology resource for patients and physicians.
Weiner BH, Marshall JJ.

St Vincent Hospital at Worcester Medical Center, Worcester, MA 01608, USA. president@scai.org

PMID: 18288740

[Okay, not a lot in the abstract, but check out the site.]

JANE, eTBLAST, and Whatizit

When I posted in February about JANE, I should also have mentioned eTBLAST(previously mentioned here):

Our service is very different from PubMed. While PubMed searches for “keywords”, our search engine lets you input an entire paragraph and returns MEDLINE abstracts that are similar to it. This is something like PubMed’s “Related Articles” feature, only better because it runs on your unique set of interests. For example, input the abstract of an unpublished paper or a grant proposal into our engine, and with the touch of a button you’ll be able to find every abstract in MEDLINE dealing with your topic. No more guessing whether your set of keywords has found all the right papers. No more sorting through hundreds of papers you don’t care about to find the handful you were looking for–our search engine does it for you.

I also recently stumbled across Whatizit:

Whatizit is a text processing system that allows you to do textmining tasks on text. The tasks come defined by the pipelines in the drop down list of the above window and the text can be pasted in the text area. The description of each individual task/pipeline can be found following the link next to the submit button. Whatizit is also a Medline abstracts retrieval/search engine. Instead of providing the text by Copy&Paste, you can launch a Medline search. The abstracts that match your search critetia are retrieved and processed by a pipeline of your choice.

Microsoft Vision of our Healthcare Future

Again, not new- but new to me:

The ubiquitous computing concepts shown in the video make someone like me drool. It would seem that the future is flat, rectilinear, and white with pastel accents¹.

Still, do you see anything in this video that really strikes you as revolutionary for healthcare …or is it all just really cool-looking?

---

¹ I’m married to a design historian, I can’t help it. Sorry.

Online Recruitment Dips in March, According to the Monster Employment Index UK

— Online Hiring Falls Slightly Following Record Growth in February — — HR Sector Hit Hardest — Online recruitment activity in the UK eased slightly in March as the Monster Employment Index dropped by 5 points, following record growth in February. The Monster Employment Index UK is a monthly analysis of millions of online job opportunities culled from a large, representative selection of corporate career sites and job boards across Europe, including Monster.co.uk. The Index fell to a level of 187 points in March, partly due to a significant drop in online job availability in the HR sector. The Index also showed a notable decrease in demand for craft and related workers. Overall, the Index is up 37 points, or 25 percent, compared to March 2007. "Despite the slight dip in March, the first quarter of 2008 brought strong growth in online job demand," said Hugo Sellert, Head of Economic Research, Monster Worldwide. "The labour market remains tight as employers continue to try and fill vacancies. The financial sector shows fewer opportunities than last year amid continued turmoil in the banking sector, but prospects for growth across most other UK industries still appear favourable." Monster Employment Index UK results over the past 13 months are as follows: Mar08 Feb08 Jan08 Dec07 Nov07 Oct07 Sept07 187 192 160 174 169 160 162 Aug07 Jul07 Jun07 May07 Apr07 Mar07 167 165 170 162 141 150 Notable Decline in HR Hiring in March There was a significant decrease in online job demand in the HR sector, led by a decline in opportunities for professionals. Growth dipped across most regions in the UK, with London registering the sharpest fall following two months of continued growth. The South East and South West fell after one and two months of growth respectively, while hiring in Northern Ireland remained stable. Year-on-year increase was 4 points, or 2% Opportunities in the healthcare, social work sector decreased notably in March, following strong growth in February. This dip reflects reduced hiring for both technicians and associate professionals; and professionals. By contrast, demand grew for service workers and shop and market sales workers within this sector for the second month in a row. Regionally, the South West registered the biggest decline, while there was an upturn of opportunities in Northern Ireland. Job availability in the education, training and library sector also dipped, reversing the upward trend in February. A slowing of vacancies was seen among professionals, which saw strong growth in February. Regionally, East Anglia, London and the South East saw the sharpest declines; while the Midlands and Wales each saw increases for the second consecutive month. Contrastingly, the legal sector saw a considerable rise in online job demand, increasing by 38 Index points after two months of decline. Professionals experienced the highest demand in the sector. The South East showed the highest rate of increase, following two months of decline. London also registered a significant increase in opportunities. Decreases in Online Demand for Craft and Related Workers; and Clerks in March Online job availability for craft and related workers fell by 15 Index points in March, reversing two consecutive months of growth. Sharp declines were seen in the construction and extraction; and production, manufacturing, maintenance, repair sectors. Online hiring dipped in most of the regions, with the Midlands showing the sharpest decline. There was a slight increase in Northern Ireland for the second month in a row. Hiring of clerks also went down in March, following an increase in February. The sharpest dip was in the administrative, organisation; and the sales sectors. An upturn was registered in the public sector, defence, community; and transport, post and logistics sectors for the second consecutive month. Online recruitment fell across the UK, with Scotland showing the deepest decline. Job availability also dipped considerably in North England and the South West. In contrast, there was a rise in demand for legislators, senior officials and managers in March, for the second month in a row. Regionally, Scotland and Northern Ireland showed the highest demand. Year-on-year growth was 47 points, or 39 percent. Online Recruitment Dips in the Majority of UK Regions There was a downturn in online hiring across most regions in the UK in March. The most significant fall was in the Midlands, led by a sharp decline in the management and consulting sector. Job availability in the region also dipped in IT, after five months of continued increase. By contrast, the legal sector saw a recovery after two months of decline. North England decreased as well, despite a high rate of increase in the environment, architecture and urbanism sector for the second consecutive month. Among occupational groups, job availability went down for plant and machine operators and assemblers; and clerks. There was also a sizeable dip in East Anglia in March, led by falls in demand in the administrative, organisation; healthcare, social work; and IT sectors. Online hiring increased markedly in Scotland for the second successive month. The highest growth in hiring was in the engineering sector, as it was in February. Meanwhile, demand in the construction and extraction industry grew for the fourth straight month. Year-on-year growth was 56 points, or 40 percent. Monster Employment Index UK data for April will be released on May 13, 2008. About The Monster Employment Index UK Providing a broad, comprehensive monthly analysis of online job demand, the Monster Employment Index UK is an extension of the Monster Employment Index Europe, which is compiled each month by researchers at Monster Worldwide Europe. Launched in June 2005, the Monster Employment Index Europe provides monthly insight into recruitment trends across the European Union. The Index report is based on a real-time review of millions of employer job opportunities culled from a large, representative selection of corporate career sites and job boards across Europe, including Monster®. The Index is audited by Research America, Inc. and provides analyses of online job demand within occupational categories, industry sectors and regions. Monthly Index reports for Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, the United Kingdom and Europe are available at: http://corporate.monster.com/Press_Room/MEI_EU.asp.

Nothing Unbalanced About So-called "Trade Deficits" (by Don Boudreaux)

In this recent Wall Street Journal op-ed, Dartmouth economist Matthew Slaughter describes some of the benefits of foreign direct investment (FDI).  Here's an important part of his essay:

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has long been a source of strength for the American economy. In 2005, insourcing companies employed nearly 5.1 million Americans, 4.4% of the private-sector labor force. Beyond their employment, insourcing companies perform large amounts of the crucial activities that make their workers and the overall economy more productive. They invest in physical capital and in research and development, and they help connect the U.S. to the global economy through international trade. The bottom line is larger paychecks. In 2005, compensation per worker at insourcing companies was $66,042 -- 31.8% above the average for the rest of the private sector of $50,124.

I do, though, pick one (admittedly small) nit with Mr. Slaughter's exposition, as I explain in this letter that I sent to the WSJ:

Bravo for Matthew Slaughter's outstanding explanation of the pattern and enormous benefits of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the United States ("What Tata Tells Us," March 27).

I've one nit to pick: Mr. Slaughter incautiously aids and comforts protectionists when he writes that FDI today is driven by "the evolving pattern of global imbalances." While incoming FDI does indeed increase America's current-account deficit and many other countries' current-account surpluses, there's nothing unbalanced - either in the sense of being unsustainable or of being harmful - about America's attractiveness to investors, or about foreigners being especially keen to invest their dollars in the U.S. rather than spend these dollars on American-produced goods and services.  Indeed, as Mr. Slaughter ably explains, such actions by foreigners are a great boon to foreigners and Americans alike.

Sincerely,
Donald J. Boudreaux

"Earth Hour" and the Dark Ages (by Don Boudreaux)

The World Wildlife Fund arranged today's "Earth Hour" -- a pledge by many people from around the world to turn off lights for an hour.  The following is from a page on the WWF website:

Earth Hour is a global event created to symbolize that each one of us, working together, can make a positive impact on climate change - no matter who we are or where we live.

Created by WWF in Sydney, Australia in 2007, Earth Hour has grown from a single event into a global movement. In 2008, millions of people, businesses, governments and civic organizations in nearly 200 cities around the globe will turn out for Earth Hour. More than 35 US cities will participate, including the US flagships--Atlanta, Chicago, Phoenix and San Francisco.

Earth Hour brings together communities, local governments, corporate and nongovernmental organizations to heighten awareness about climate change and to inspire our nation to take practical actions to reduce their own carbon footprints.

Reading about the WWF's "Earth Hour" -- and hearing on the radio and t.v. too many mindless endorsements of this stunt, and seeing Google's special black "Earth Hour" design for its opening page today -- I sent the following letter to Carter Roberts, President of the WWF:

Dear Mr. Roberts:

You and members of your organization worry that industrialization and economic growth are harming the earth's environment.  I worry that the intensifying hysteria about the state of the environment - and that the resulting hostility to economic growth - might harm humankind's prospects for comfortable, healthy, enjoyable, and long lives.

So I commend you on your "Earth Hour" effort.  Persuading people across the globe to turn off lights for one hour supplies the perfect symbol for modern environmentalism: a collective effort to return humankind to the dark ages.

Sincerely,
Donald J. Boudreaux

By the way, of course, the WWF should award some special prize to the North Korean government, for that government keeps North Koreans not in any meager "Earth Hour," or even "Earth Day," but in what WWFers might call "Earth Decades" -- very little light ever.  This picture of the Korean peninsula speaks volumes -- the Dark Ages today; a society keeping its carbon footprint tiny.  Of course, in doing so it keeps itself also desperately poor, often even to the point of starvation.

Striking out (by Russell Roberts)

Sometimes I get depressed about the quality of statistical work in economics. Then I read something from another social science. Here is a recent study where psychologists find that having the initial "K" increases your chance of striking out when playing professional baseball. Why? Well, it's obvious isn't it? The letter "K" is used when keeping score in baseball to represent striking out. So it's obvious now isn't it? Still don't get it? Neither do I. But hey, it's in the data. Between 1913 and 2006, players with first or last initial "K" struck out 18.8% of the time compared to 17.2% for the fortunate players unhandicapped by their initials. Here is the "explanation" of the authors:

Despite a universal desire to avoid striking out, K-initialed players strike out more often.  For those players, we argue that the explicitly negative performance outcome may feel implicitly  positive. Even Karl "Koley" Kolseth would find a strikeout aversive, but on the whole, he might  find it a little less aversive than players who do not share his initials, and avoid it less  enthusiastically.

But why? Why would having the initial "K" make striking out more pleasant? I just don't get it. The authors go on to "test" their theory by looking at grades of a sample of MBA students:

The MBA students in our sample are well aware of a direct connection between academic  performance and successful job placement. Nevertheless, despite the pervasive desire to achieve  high grades, students with an unconsciously-driven fondness for C's and D's were slightly less  successful at achieving their conscious goal.

That is, Charles Darwin received poorer grades than Alan Alda. But it turns out that Alan Alda didn't do better than the non-ABCD initialed:

Interestingly, A- or B-initialed students did not perform better than students whose  initials were grade-irrelevant. There are two possible explanations for this. First, students with  grade-irrelevant initials may already be maximally motivated to succeed. Second, because  performance is determined by motivation and ability, any increased motivation to succeed that  arises from having initials that match positive performance outcomes may not necessarily  translate into increased performance.

There is, of course, a third explanation: there is no real relationship and the authors have been fooled by randomness. Yes, their results are statistically significant. But how many relationships did they explore before finding the ones that were statistically significant. And ho many relationships are there to explore? To really test the theory, you'd have to look at baseball players with the initial "E" and see if they commit more errors than others. You'd have to look at guards in the NBA to see if those with initials "A" have more assists. Centers whose initials include an "R" should be better rebounders. You'd have to look and see whether students with the initials IC were more likely to take an "incomplete" in a class.

I guess Rabbi Jonathan Sacks, the Chief Rabbi of England should have been a football player. Or maybe he just gets fired more often than the average Briton because it doesn't bother him as much as someone with a different last name.

Did Kafka know baseball scoring? Does this explain why he found success in life so difficult? Is this why he named a character "K"?

Do players whose initials are a backwards "K" strike out looking more than the average?

More on Bartels

I'm a little surprised that the Bartels result is receiving so much attention because the result, in slightly different form, has long been known to political economists under the rubric of partisan business cycle theory.  In a nutshell, the theory of partisan business cycles says that Democrats care more about reducing unemployment, Republicans care more about reducing inflation.  Wage growth is set according to expected inflation in advance of an election.  Since which party will win the election is unknown wages growth is set according to a mean of the Democrat (high) and Republican (low) expected inflation rates.  If Democrats are elected they inflate and real wages fall creating a boom.  If Republicans are elected they reduce inflation and real wages rise creating a bust.  Notice that in PBC theory neither party creates a boom or bust it's uncertainty which drives the result - if the winning party were known there would be neither boom nor bust.

Ok, there's plenty to question about the theory but let's look at the data.

Notice that in the second year of just about every Democratic Presidency there is a boom.  Interestingly, the boom is biggest for Truman whose reelection was highly uncertain (remember Dewey wins!) thus expected inflation would have been low and the boom big.  Similarly the boom is smallest (relative to the surrounding years) for Clinton II a relatively certain reelection.

Now look at Republicans in just about every second year of a Republican Presidency there is a bust.  The one major exception being Reagan II where uncertainty about the outcome was low.

It's pretty clear that this result can explain Bartels's result which is exactly Tyler's point in his post.   It's equally clear that when we consider Presidents there aren't many data points.  (PBC does appear to hold somewhat in other countries).

Notice that the reason for the result, according to PBC, is sticky wages and the business cycle and not some nefarious story about taxes, oligarchies and political conspiracies.

Haitian prison

If international minimum standards of about four square metres for every prisoner were met, the National Penitentiary would hold a little more than 400 inmates. On the day Maclean's visits the prison, there are 3,331 men jailed inside. Most, at least 90 per cent, have not had a trial. They are held under the euphemistic term "preventative detention," and because of a lack of judges, proper evidence, and even vehicles to transport them to court, it is unlikely many will be tried any time soon. "People sleep on top of people in here," one prisoner says through the bars of a bathroom-sized cell that holds 43 people. Most are standing. Others have fashioned hammocks out of scraps of cloth and have suspended themselves from the bars of the cell's high window, where they can get more light and air...

Here is more.  And that is not all:

There is a punishment cell, perhaps four feet tall, where no one can stand. The punishment cell is crowded, but less so than other cells, and some inmates prefer it. "You have people who do things wrong just so they have a place to lie down or to be safe from gangs," Cadet says.

Here is a video about recent food riots in Haiti, and no those are not in the prisons.

Larry Bartels, and how Republican Presidents drive income inequality

He writes:

In any case, the largest partisan differences in income growth, by far, occur in the second year of each administration.

The link, by the way, answers many objections to his basic thesis.  View this graph if you don't already know the argument.  The core claim is that Republican Presidents are better for the rich and Democratic Presidents are better for the poor, and to a striking degree. 

I view the statistical significance of the Bartels result as stemming from monetary policy.  Republicans are more willing to break the back of inflation and risk an immediate recession.  Alternatively, it could be said that central bankers expect enough support for tough, anti-inflation decisions only from Republican Presidents.  (Note that Jimmy Carter, who did support Volcker, is in fact the single Democratic outlier.)  Note that without the monetary policy effect, only a few data points, mostly from very recent times, support the basic claim.  Without the monetary policy effect, I do not think that statistical significance would remain.  Furthermore other plausible channels for income inequality effects, such as tax and regulatory decisions, would not be concentrated in the second year of each administration.  Monetary policy decisions would be.  A recession, by generating more unemployment, hurts the poor the most in proportional terms.

So what does this all mean?

Inflation is good for the poor in the short run, since many poor are debtors.  But inflation is bad for the poor in the long run.  Just ask anyone who lived through the New Zealand inflation of the 1970s.

So Bartels could have entitled his key graph: "Democratic Presidents live for the short run and we need a Republican President every now and then."

Addendum: Even Paul Krugman wonders about the basic mechanism driving the result.